Britain’s chess in the European Union under difficult

January 6th, 2012

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Fires raging in London riots, massive rally against pension reform, together with Germany Acer Aspire 5610 battery and France rejected a joint initiative to strengthen the financial changes to the "Lisbon Treaty" caused by the left alone, the British in 2011 had some taste of home and less abroad

Over the past 2011, Europe sovereign debt crisis raging across the sea of ​​the British Isles also irritated: ablaze London riots, massive rally against pension reform, together with Germany and France to strengthen the financial veto a joint initiative to modify the "Lisbon Treaty" caused by the left alone, has quite the taste of home and less abroad.

August 2011, the "Arab Spring" seems to spread to the London Tottenham, London riots ignited the flames, and spread rapidly. People are stunned endless: the riots in the crowd and even vandalism flashed ambassador for the 2012 London Olympics so that the children of middle-class figure. How the issue of the British people can not help but question.

Study the underlying reasons, first, the recession, high unemployment, HP pavilion dv9000 Battery debt shot up, forced to implement severe austerity policies. After the financial crisis, though not the euro area member states, but the dominance of the British financial industry, the economy suffered a severe crisis of poison, weak growth, less than 1% is expected this year; unemployment up to 8.3%, the highest since 1994; public debt continued to climb, the government was forced to tighten again, including the reduction of 500,000 public jobs and so on. Second, prominent cultural and educational issues, a new generation of identity and cultural traditions of the mainstream emergence of displacement and deviation, rebellious and anti-traditional atmosphere on the rise. Third, the cultural diversity and immigrant integration failed to achieve the objectives of social, ethnic minorities and children of immigrants there is a gap between the mainstream of public opinion, they are gradually being marginalized and ignored.

In December, the British government to reduce the fiscal deficit to deal with aging and the financial crisis, was forced to cut welfare and social security system, pension reform plan put forward: the public sector staff to extend the retirement age from 60 to 66 years of age; the amount of old-age pensions and retirement pay from the past and linked to career average earnings-related, significantly reduced the level of pensions; increase in personal pension deposit ratio. This was, including the majority of civil servants and other employees, including strong opposition from more than 200 million people flock to the streets, strikes, protests, creating a record of past centuries, known as the "Century strike."

Clearly, the welfare system’s rigidity makes easily from simple to extravagant, from luxury to simple hard. Britain has a tradition of high welfare, in 1601 the British introduced the world’s first "Poor Law", SONY VGP-BPS9 battery July 1948, according to "Beveridge Plan," the British announced the completion of the world’s first welfare state, committed to provide "cradle-to- grave "social security system around the clock service. But with the economic downturn, especially the growing aging, the elderly population over 65 years the UK has reached 16%, the UK pension severe deficits, the current pension deficit has reached 26% of GDP, reasonable reform, but it is undoubtedly touch the citizens, especially the civil service pension costs of cheese, was also reasonable to strong resistance.

End of the year, for the sovereign debt crisis for the final solution, known as the last hope of resolving the crisis through the EU summit in more than 10 hours after bargaining, including non-euro area and EU member countries and other EU countries finally agreed to a total of 26 strengthen fiscal discipline and the conclusion of the New Testament, only the British stay out, so that Defa Xi Wang unanimously to modify the "Lisbon Treaty" initiative abortion, the British became the integration of the "separatists", the European Union’s isolated. Cameron as Conservative prime minister declared: This is to protect the interests of the UK financial sector and fiscal sovereignty against alienation, and get 62% of British people support. But the Deputy Prime Minister, but from the Liberal Democratic Party’s Craig expressed extreme disappointment: "Britain will be isolated, which would be detrimental to employment, economic growth and the livelihoods of tens of millions of people." Opposition Labor Party said it would weaken the Britain in the European Union’s right to speak.

Undoubtedly, this reflects the British tangle: on the one hand, has always been satisfied with the position of weakness and with the United States belong to the Anglo-Saxon model of the UK has been a tradition in Europe to send the suspect, believed in the "glorious independence", not only half-hearted before the accession, and the firm does not enter the euro zone. Coupled with its financial sector accounted for the overall economy more than one percent, Germany and France to promote the strengthening of financial supervision and financial transactions tax increase touched its core interests, is unacceptable, LG R1 Pro Express Dual battery hope to sign in exchange for financial privileges sensible. But the veto, but also its become common knowledge, and breaking down into the EU were heterogeneous, with Germany and France forged a certain distance. On the other hand, half of their trade in Europe, economic and other benefits is difficult to let go, can not be independent, of course, the EU is also inseparable from the United Kingdom. This game of chess is difficult under.

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EU Airlines’ limit carbon "cost-effective or miscalculation

January 6th, 2012

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After five years of preparation, the EU finally scheduled to hit the Toshiba PA3465U-1BAS battery aviation industry worldwide emissions "stick", from January 1, 2012 from more than 4,000 global airlines into the EU emissions trading system. EU to receive "green money from" Forget what political accounts and economic accounts? "Carbon-limited storm" the shadow of the "Aviation 2012" on?

Economic accounts: fear runs the risk of

Although this policy is for the EU to address climate change considerations, but also difficult to hide their by political and economic interests-driven reality. Shanghai Environment Energy Exchange research director Dr. Li Jin pointed out that, politically speaking, with the international aviation industry, the EU regional carbon trading system to be extended to a global scale, it can be further enhanced to address climate change issues in leadership and voice. From an economic point of view, one is suffering from debt-crisis economy provides a "subsidy"; the second is to seize the global carbon finance, carbon trading, carbon monitoring, carbon reporting, carbon market opportunities in the field of certification; third is to pull the aircraft manufacturing exports of green technology services; four for possible future introduction of iron and steel, electricity, shipping and other global industry solution "test the water."

However, the European Union on the "wishful thinking" while playing Compaq Presario cq40 battery sound, but not "pains." First of all, this is essentially due to the EU in the global circulation is set up green barriers, logistics cost increases along the chain transfer to the field of trade in goods, trade profits narrowing, entry prices rise, in the end may become victims of is precisely the EU itself. Second, the United States, Russia and other countries clearly anti-system, Europe will also benefit greatly reduced. Finally, tourists and business people travel costs rise, may be suppressed to some extent, the world of international tourism consumption and business activities of activity. According to the analysis estimates, assuming that the European emission quota transaction costs and opportunity costs fully passed on, taking into account the latest fuel prices, carbon dioxide quotas when the price is 10 euros per tonne, air ticket price increase of 1.3%, 0.5% lower demand for tickets; When the quota price of € 30 per ton, raise fares 4.0%, 2.4% lower demand. International Air Transport Association survey showed that more expensive fare may give up 10 million U.S. travelers to Europe to travel. From this, the EU is not only difficult to achieve fame and fortune, but there runs the risk of the horse.

Environmental accounts: Non-direct emission

Considered complete economic accounts, and then count environmental accounts. The EU’s "carbon limit" made in reducing emissions but also on how effective?

Beijing University of Aeronautics Aviation Research Center Associate Professor Yang Caixia that emissions from the industry perspective, the aviation industry’s global carbon dioxide emissions account for only 3% of total emissions, metallurgy, electric power, manufacturing and other industries emissions far more than the former. However, after 2003 the implementation of the EU carbon emissions trading system, metallurgy, electric power and other industries, the relevant instructions are given to the free quota excess, the actual emission reduction effect is very limited. The aviation industry into carbon emissions trading HP Pavilion dv7 battery system, how effective has yet to be seen. Because of its historical emissions as the basis to calculate the quota, so for most major airlines, the EU’s emission reduction pressure is not great, the natural effect of emission reduction will not be very obvious. In addition to advocating environmental effects outside the EU, and so far did not give data to prove the effectiveness of emission reduction policies. As for the aviation industry are on the rise in developing countries, emission reduction and cost pressures would be very great.

Emissions from the transportation point of view, the most effective way to optimize the transportation system layout. But the EU’s road transport greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation accounted for 71%, there are still many Europeans enjoy the convenience of private cars and all kinds of reasons to oppose nuclear power and other clean energy. China Air Transport Association, said Deputy Secretary-General Chai Haibo, the EU approach is a non-direct emission reduction measures, did not have a direct and practical energy saving effect, but the unilateral establishment of a detour to energy saving in the name of it implementation of the system design of a financial nature, will prevent, inhibit the development of air transport industry of developing countries. Moreover, the EU’s "emission limitation that" the implementation of object forest for the trees, not the first SONY VGP-BPS9 battery for the aircraft and engine manufacturers, emission reduction is not from the source.

In addition, for the EU "policies", some airlines may be "under the measures", the design of the next route to Europe through the Middle East and other third country transit, etc., to reduce direct carbon emissions accounting, and this reduction intentions.

Industry accounts: quota imbalance

The EU policy in the preparation stage, caused the United States, China, Russia and other countries dissatisfied with the aviation industry. For China, the EU would not only violate international law and international practice, it is the "common but differentiated responsibilities" principle ignored. It is estimated that China’s civil aviation industry in 2012 will pay about $ 0.8 billion by 2020 will increase to 3.0 billion, total expenditures for nine years here about 176 million.

Moreover, airlines in developed and developing countries to buy carbon emissions quotas, there are also uneven. China, a major European airline to fly 36% of the 2012 quota will need to purchase, Sony VGP-BPS5 battery the transaction costs 210 million yuan; to 2015, these two figures were 48% and 3.8 billion; in 2020 and further rose to 67% 730 million yuan. The Lufthansa 2012 only 8% of the quotas need to purchase, and the ratio does not significantly increase. This is business booming Chinese aviation enterprises is undoubtedly a long-term burden, but also by increasing the European advantage.

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Soros: the disintegration of the catastrophic consequences of EU

January 6th, 2012

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Investment tycoon George Soros said the euro is the European Union pose a Dell Inspiron 6000 Battery potential threat to political unity, the euro collapse, the disintegration of the European Union will have catastrophic consequences for the global debt crisis in Europe over the 2008 financial crisis is more serious.

Soros in the southern Indian city of Hyderabad, said, "Today, the euro is a potential threat to the European Union’s political unity."

The financial predators, said, "If the common currency’s collapse, which would lead to the collapse of the EU itself, and, not only will hit Europe, and even the global financial system will have catastrophic consequences."

Soros said the euro zone crisis "than the 2008 financial crisis more serious, more dangerous."

He said that given the "creditor and debtor countries," the HP Pavilion DV2000 Battery imbalance between the short term, some euro area countries will likely have to take more tightening measures.

Soros said, "Unfortunately, they have not resolved this serious financial crisis, which led to deterioration of the situation is completely unclear whether the European solution."

Debt market concerns about the EU has reduced the market risk aversion also continues to heat up, leading to the euro continued to weaken. Some experts even point out that EU leaders seem to have their rope, the European debt problem is a deadlock, only to make the European Union and the disintegration of the euro area can be resolved.

Media reports have said the European part of the central bank is said to have begun to consider contingency plans for the member states out of the euro, and even complete disintegration of the euro IBM ThinkPad X40 Battery area in preparation, including the consideration of re-opening in January 2002 the euro into circulation since the national currency will no longer be printed .

The threat of the debt crisis in Europe is no longer just exist in the financial sector, many companies now have to be physical disintegration of the euro area to develop this possibility into areas of future development strategy.

Soros and other financial giants are currently adverse economic bargain-hunting euro assets.

Soros had been ahead of the layout in 2011 in the European bond market and stock market. First, in Man’s world at the end of October last year after the collapse of Soros Fund through the family bought its holdings of about $ 2 billion in European sovereign bonds.

It is reported that George Soros and a few hedge funds, the discount is 89 cents, from the hands of Man’s global access to one of a group of Italian government bonds, but bond market price was 94 cents. In other words, Soros bet that Italian bonds will not default.

It is understood that, as of mid-December last year, this Toshiba PA3465U-1BAS battery group of Italian Treasury has about $130 million Soros to create profit.

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The EU intends to seek deal with the Iranian oil embargo program

January 5th, 2012

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EU and U.S. sanctions against Iran to further tighten the noose: Brussels local time on Acer Aspire 5520 battery the 4th of foreign diplomats, said the oil embargo against Iran has been initially agreed.

In the oil embargo against Iran had been doubts about the Greek "let go", the EU foreign ministers prepared to the meeting on January 30 announced the implementation of Iran’s energy and banking more stringent sanctions. "We want to strengthen sanctions against Iran – have been mentioned sanctions include oil and financial sectors." EU spokesman Michael Mann said that in Brussels 5.

Although Iran says to respond quickly, will find alternative customers, but most analysts believe that the potential impact of the embargo on the market is huge. "Strengthen sanctions against Iran will only create tension and increase Iran’s Strait of Hormuz off the possibility." French Paribas Commodity Futures director Tom Bentz believes that "If the Europeans stop buying oil from Iran, they will have to purchase from elsewhere, will inevitably result in oil supply. "

Still need to finalize the details of sanctions

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe here in Lisbon, said he hoped the Dell Inspiron 6400 Battery 30-day meeting of EU foreign ministers to sanctions on Iran’s decision to embargo oil exports to reach agreement.

Joint promotion by the British and French oil embargo in the last month was the Greek opposition. According to data released by the United States, Greece, during the first half of 2011, 14% of oil imports come from Iran. But on the 4th one from the Greek government environment, energy and climate Ministry officials said, Greece has decided to comply with any of the EU embargo.

"In principle, to move forward (on the Iranian oil embargo) has reached an agreement." Brussels, a diplomat added, "but (of sanctions) time to reach an agreement on the point, 30-day meeting is still much work to do. "

Juppe said some EU countries to buy large quantities of oil from Iran, mainly Spain, Greece and Italy, these countries need to "alternatives." "These alternatives exist, I think the end of January we were able to achieve their goals." He said. Italian Prime Minister had said Monty, Italy the proportion of oil imports from Iran about the country’s oil demand of 13%.

The United States welcomed the European Union to promote the embargo. "It’s the economy with tightening the noose on Iran’s acting." Efforts Rand U.S. State Department spokesman in Washington said Victoria, "to get attention is the oil of Iran." Nu Lande Iran will blockade Hall on wood Zihai Gap’s position, known as "bluster." "This ‘bluster’ that Iran HP Pavilion dv4 battery feel the pressure." She said, in order to ensure that such as the Strait of Hormuz waterway of international free flow of public waters, the United States will "continue to play a global role."

Strait of Hormuz is located between the southern Arabian Peninsula and Iran, the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean is the only export, but also important international oil transport routes from the Persian Gulf oil exports go through the Strait account for the total global crude oil supply one-fifth of traffic.

Iran to seek "alternatives"

In the European Union that are stepping up to the Iranian oil and banking sanctions, the international crude oil prices in 11 days 9 times higher, floating to the nearly 8-month high. According to Bloomberg data, in December last year, Iran’s crude oil output to reach 358 million barrels per day, second only to Saudi Arabia is OPEC country’s second largest oil producer. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration data, 2010 Iran’s oil exports to 220 million barrels, of which 60 million barrels sold in the EU. The EU is Iran’s second largest crude oil export target.

Analysis, once the ban is really implemented, Saudi Arabia will be asked to provide an extra 60 million barrels of oil a day, run out of Saudi Arabia’s margin.

At present, Iran has been trying to find a way to deal with the Western economic sanctions, Iran’s oil revenues to know its foreign exchange earnings account for 80% of the total. An Iranian oil ministry official said Iran had to find alternative, prepared to continue to maintain this year 2.3 million barrels per day of crude oil exports.

The Iranian Parliament Energy Committee members Said Hosseini LG R405 battery had also said that oil exports to the EU only Iran’s oil exports accounting for 18%. He believes that EU countries do not buy Iranian oil, will not cause too much impact on the Iranian economy.

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EU reached an agreement to block Iran’s eight-month oil prices touch new high

January 5th, 2012

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January 4, EU diplomats said the EU has banned Iranian oil into the EU reached a preliminary agreement, as the ban will be implemented is not yet decided. According to the December meeting of EU foreign ministers, the EU SONY VGP-BPS9 battery will be held January 30 summit, it is quite likely the introduction of formal oil embargo against Iraq.

After the news of the EU sanctions, the international oil prices soared. As of yesterday, 20:30, U.S. crude oil futures contract reported 3 103.18 a barrel, down 0.32%. But still after hitting $ 103.86 for the 8-month high. It is worth mentioning that Iran has a strong counterattack that once the oil export ban hit, oil prices will soon rose to $ 250. The future of all foreign warships through the Strait of Hormuz would like, are required to obtain approval of the Iranian Navy.

It is said that EU foreign officials generally believe that sanctions would be phased, and will not immediately break the existing oil purchase contract. Future negotiations will focus on what the contract should be within the scope of exemptions to the embargo, there are many long hours of their exemption. Said a senior French diplomat on, for example, Italy has paid large advance payment to Iran, if the immediate cessation of imports, it will cause huge economic losses.

CRE Securities analyst Chai Xiaohu that if the formation of future conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, will lead to short-term market panic, so that short-term spikes in international oil prices over the previous $ HP pavilion dv9000 Battery 150 high probability of great. The soaring price of crude oil will be the already fragile global economy the formation of new shocks.

Thus, the focus of global concern is not round in the European Union ban on imports of Iraqi oil itself, but rather concentrated in the Middle East oil-exporting hub on the Strait of Hormuz. Information, the channel share of global oil transport approximately 20% of total daily across the globe through the region up to 1600 barrels of crude oil.

2012 prices may be higher than $ 100

So, Iran’s oil If that is blocked, how much oil will be up? "Daily Economic News" reporter found that, because Europe is a large oil imports, about 50 million barrels of crude oil a day to buy. Even Asian countries such as China, Japan, India purchase of Iranian oil, I am afraid it is difficult to fill Iran’s oil exports to Europe the gap.

More importantly, after the 2001 oil embargo of Iraq, from July 2001 to mid-September, the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production starts to completely bridge the gap during a very short time, short-term supply and demand due to changes in crude oil , prices have skyrocketed by 20%. Saudi Arabia currently no plans to increase production and replace it with the 12 million barrels per day production target, stop the $ 100 billion expansion plan. In addition, Citigroup IBM ThinkPad X40 Battery believes that Libya’s oil production to be restored to the pre-war level of full load to wait until the end of 2012. This indicates that, even without considering oil demand growth in emerging countries the negative impact of the embargo shortly after one or two months, oil prices will sharply rise.

Research providers in New Jersey Economic Outlook Group, said chief global economist BernardBaumohl, 2012 Iran’s oil supply could be disrupted revenge. Will continue in the oil premium $ 10 per barrel to 20 dollars. The danger is that oil prices will shot up to $ 130 or more, depending on whether the conflict escalation. If so, we need to consider the economic recession in Europe and the global economy as a whole faced declining prospects.

Appropriate sanctions "time"

An EU diplomat said that all parties to promote the embargo on Iranian oil to Europe to reach a consensus in principle, but "there is still much work to do" to determine when sanctions implemented. Another diplomat stressed that the current discussion focused on the implementation of sanctions "time."

Ally, the United States and cheered sanctions

U.S. State Department spokesman Newland said: "This is good news, but also the United States and European Union countries the results of negotiations that the United States not only want to see European allies decided that sanctions against Iran, but also like to see other countries do," "because we believe that this will tighten the shackles of Iran’s economy, we believe, allow Iran has touched the area is oil.

Iran will never give up uranium enrichment

"Our country will never give up uranium enrichment activities … Iran’s nuclear program is entirely for peaceful purposes, this is one of our basic rights Iran ready to restart nuclear talks with Iran, but the relevant parties should sit down and determine the three, negotiation time, place and contents of the negotiation talks. "Iranian Foreign IBM ThinkPad R50 Battery Ministry spokesman Manchester

United States to ensure freedom of navigation in the Straits sensitive

"Strait of Hormuz is international waters, Iran Iran on the need to allow foreign warships through the Strait can only request a" paper tiger threat. "This shows that the sanctions and other measures to make Iran feel the pressure to have the United States will continue to play a role in to ensure and promote the freedom of navigation in international waters. "

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Hungarian currency crisis or imminent breach of the first of its kind the EU

January 5th, 2012

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What is the currency crisis? For example, the early 1990s, still stands on the streets of Bangkok, Thailand, with various skyscrapers, economic prosperity and orderly look. But Soros and other crazy short baht in 1997, these skyscraper quickly deserted, people unemployed of no fixed abode. Today, Hungary has been put on the "guillotine." With the speed of Apple A1185 Battery depreciation of the currency, Hungary is likely to be the first breach of EU governments.

Fuse: confrontation with the European Union

Wednesday morning, the foreign exchange market appeared an unusual transaction. Hungarian forint drop down to a sudden acceleration, the euro forint disk reported 319.4, approaching a record high. 36 hours after the forint are still experiencing a strong sell. As of 6 pm last night, the euro against the forint continued to move, to 324.16 intraday Mogao, refresh the record.

In the end is what causes investors suddenly sale forint it? You know, even the euro, also hit from yesterday, its lowest level since September 2010.

It is reported that the Hungarian parliament last week passed new restrictions on central bank independence of the central bank law, and canceled a planned bond exchange auction. However, the move angered the European Union and International Monetary Fund (IMF), as in Hungary in November last year decided to seek financial support for the EU and the IMF, the market is worried that the country is therefore less likely to obtain 15 billion to 200 billion euros of emergency line of credit. Began to go crazy to sell forint.

This also throws up a series of derivative problems, the first is the HP pavilion dv6000 Battery bond market. Less attractive when the forint, the Hungarian market is not willing to hold more government bonds. As of yesterday, Hungary 10-year Treasury yields surged to 10.92%. In addition, the 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) spreads widened to 745 points, a record high. Reflect the high risk of debt default.

But the Hungarian government does not think so. According to the official statement, the government has a lot of money on hand to pay that sum in 2008 rescue loan. In addition, there is surplus government and its deficit-GDP ratio has not touched the EU under the cordon.

"Daily Economic News" reporter found that the Hungarian budget deficit target for 2012, 2.5% of GDP, public debt in 2011 accounted for 82% of GDP in the EU is not high. But alarmingly, the Hungarian government representatives will meet January 11, IMF Managing Director Lagarde, there may be a critical time window. In this regard, the French Paribas believes that if the meeting does not have any results, it may trigger a new round of selling. The euro against the forint will be ascribed to the 340. Even more dangerous is when the Hungarian bond yields continued to rise, the pressure will increase in government debt. Yesterday, the issue of 350 billion forint of Hungary’s 12-month bonds, HUF 45 billion less than planned. Furthermore, the average yield from the previous month jumped by nearly 200 basis points to 9.96%.

Hungary caught three critical

According to the "Daily Economic News" reporter, Hungary is currently caught in foreign debt, currency and economic crisis of the three. In addition to IMF, the EU reached a compromise, the fear had no choice.

First, the external debt crisis of the most intuitive. Although Hungary in 2008 after the subprime crisis better recovery, the debt-GDP ratio of only 82% (third quarter), with Greece, Italy, Spain and other countries compared to the count is not high. Hungarian debt due this year, but the relative concentration, the risk of a huge money-strand breaks. Statistics show that in Hungary this year, a total of 98 billion euros of debt maturity, which accounted for 43.9% of external debt, domestic debt accounted for 56.1%. However, only the Hungarian central bank calls for 2.5 billion euros in cash, less than one-third of the SONY VGP-BPS8 battery total debt due. If Hungary does not use financial instruments, is likely to be the first breach of the EU government.

Second, the common gate money market financing has been closed for Hungary. Last month, Yin Fulin in one day fell 1.33%, to outside investors a very bad influence. At present, Hungary’s five-year credit default swaps (CDS) is close to 686 basis points higher than the two major issues of national Italy and Spain, which made the market worried about the prospects of Hungary.

The current three-month Treasury bills Hungarian average yield of 7.32%, last year in the first half of the term bond yields only 5.75%. In addition, Hungary 10-year bond yields rose on Wednesday to a high of 10.8% over the most recent Treasury auction canceled, also showed the plight of the Hungarian finance tip of the iceberg.

Again, in order to prevent foreign investment accelerated to escape, the Hungarian central bank can raise interest rates. But the problem is very difficult to tolerate the Hungarian government’s fragile economy continues to tighten. According to the International Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Report, 2012, the Hungarian economy into a recession, the range of 0.6%. Hungary may become the European Union, Eastern European countries in 2012, the slowest economic growth in the country. It is worth mentioning is that the current benchmark interest rate up to 6.5% in Hungary.

For the Hungarian crisis, Changjiang Securities, the macro group told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, Hungary is relatively small, the euro area banking system in Hungary’s exposure is limited. The spread of the crisis is confined to Eastern Europe for more range.

"Hungary is not a debt crisis," Pei Ho CRE futures analyst, said, "but the market risk sentiment caused the liquidity crisis. IMF hopes to attach conditions to aid, regulate the Hungarian government’s fiscal behavior. January 11 of negotiations there is a breakthrough opportunity. "

Hungarian Development Minister and chief negotiator TamasFellegi Thursday news conference in the Government suggests, Hungary hopes to aid in the next week regarding the IMF reach agreement with all parties, the HP pavilion DV6 battery Hungarian government for the new central bank law is open to negotiations.

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Disintegration of the euro area in the upcoming

January 4th, 2012

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British think-tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicted that the disintegration of the euro area is likely to begin this year, at least one member will be out. Out of deep debt crisis, the possibility of HP HSTNN-IB17 battery the highest in Greece, and then is likely to be Italy.

2012 has been called "the disintegration of the euro area was"

Headquartered in London, Economics and Business Research Centre said in a statement: "It looks like 2012 will be the year of the euro began to disintegrate." The statement said: "This situation is not yet a conclusion, we only predict the likelihood of 60% However, we estimate that at least the end of this year, one country (or more) will be out of the euro. "

The center also pointed out that the next decade, the possibility of the disintegration of the euro area up to 99%. Disintegration may not be such a high talk. Prior to a quarterly survey released by Deloitte also has a digital display, the British company’s CFO generally agreed that the disintegration of the euro area is the biggest threat to the business IBM ThinkPad T60 battery in 2012, 37% or more of the CFO that a euro zone member states will end this year Prior to exit the euro area, and the instability in Europe last year to increase the probability of recession in the United Kingdom to 54%.

Greece said it had close to edge out

EU leaders this week to try to gain time, Spain and Italy to speed up the rate of the debt problem, the tenth anniversary of the euro, Europe’s single currency to save from collapse. Economics and Business Research Center also pointed out that the debt crisis may force "Most banks in France and Germany," to seek assistance to offset the debt they hold by impairment losses. "They may even be nationalized, other European banks will once again into crisis."

While walking in the Dell Latitude D610 battery forefront of the wind out of the euro area economy is still terrible Greek. Yesterday, the Greek government spokesman has made clear that, if not received the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and private banks to provide 130 billion euros in the second tranche of financial stabilization fund, or had to withdraw from the euro area of ​​Greece.

EU leaders last October, in principle, to finalize a new round of European Financial Stability Fund, but the new plan to implement the conditions in Greece itself further deficit reduction and re-transformation of the economy. It is reported that the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank of Greece, the situation of the inspector will arrive in Athens, agreed the final details of the rescue.

European Central Bank or the attempt to save the city

Although a variety of organizations and the various parties have indicated the SONY VGP-BPS9 battery disintegration of the euro area could face a huge, but still believe that the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, "speculation about the disintegration of the euro area, but is ill imagined." This is a warning of market speculators, but also the collapse of the euro on the anxious political forces fight back. In fact, the ECB does have the means to overcome the debt crisis and deal with depression, such as guidance to further reduce interest rates again if necessary liquidity or large-scale release of tight state finances continue to buy government bonds. Germany is the largest contributor to the EU, but also the biggest beneficiary of the demise of the euro will not be watched.

Despite the introduction of a EU summit after another variety of the euro or the European debt crisis rescue program, but their core, there are two weaknesses: First, only emphasized the throttle, there is no economic recovery plan. For Greece, such as the highly indebted countries, there is no economic revitalization, budget cuts can only lead to blindly worsen the economy. Second, the wealthy EU member states does not want to tighten their belts to aid their brothers and sisters, but always want to pay outsiders or financial markets, they only out of a "guarantee fee." This allows the financial markets or countries outside the European Union doubts.

Whether it is from the perspective of economic development, or to overcome the debt crisis from the perspective of the EU and the euro area in 2012 is a critical year for both. How the situation evolved, the existing HP Pavilion dv7 battery response plans can implement, to be seen.

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The cost of aging drag "Happy Europe" (2)

January 4th, 2012

post from: http://laptop-battery-discount.co.uk

European welfare spending boost

Since the war, the European welfare state, although by the first oil crisis in 1973, the dramatic impact to American and European countries, represented by Anglo-American set off an unprecedented wave of reform and downsizing Acer Aspire 4310 battery movement, privatization swept through Europe and America, but because of being rigid , electoral politics and the election cycle, and many other reasons, the most difficult national welfare reform, and even lead to social unrest and political turmoil, but the European welfare state of public spending is still rising trend, government revenues have gradually expanded, in order to maintain the welfare state operation and to meet the expansion of the welfare state.

Statistics in European countries, welfare spending by the nine major components: pensions, survivors’ benefits, disability payments, health care, family benefits, active labor market policies, unemployment, housing expenses and "other." Since 1980, nine projects of increasing scale of expenditure, with considerable stability and continuity: the total public social spending in 1980 accounted for 15.6% of GDP, in 2007 to 19.2%, on average about every 10 years by one percentage point .

Control of EU countries, "the cost of aging," the ability and the future of the EU gives three scenarios forecast. The first scenario is the most pessimistic of a future, it is assumed that EU governments failed to take measures to lower its fiscal debt consolidation trend. Forecast, EU countries’ average debt level of more than 2015 100% of its GDP in 2020 rose to 120% or more; but vary greatly from country to country, including countries with the highest debt levels in dell Latitude D820 battery Ireland, and is rising fastest England, in 2020 less than 60% of one of the countries of Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Finland and Sweden.

The second scenario assumes that the EU medium-term goals in each of fiscal consolidation equivalent to 0.5% of GDP, but the result is very satisfactory: to 2023 the average debt level is still above 100%, even 2030 not stabilized.

The third scenario is the most optimistic assumption, assuming that fiscal consolidation to achieve an annual 1% of GDP, in this assumption, the average debt level in 2016 began its decline turning point, dropped to 70% by 2027, to 2030 to 65% higher than the EU regulations will also more than 60 percent by 5 percentage points.

First to raise the legal retirement age

Aging countries in the world in response to the crisis and reforming the welfare system has made a tremendous effort, almost all countries failed to exposure to the outside. The debt crisis in Europe once again placed in the national reform agenda before: deal with aging crisis, reform the social security system, to save the welfare state, out of the debt crisis.

ZhengBingWen that, to reform the pension system, there are three options: either lower level of retirement benefits, or increase contribution rates, or raising the retirement age. But in fact the first two options have very little room for adjustment, most European countries the level has reached the limit fees, lower replacement SONY VGP-BPS8 battery rate means lower welfare level, the operational "political space" is not great, so the remaining only raising the retirement age, with the extension of life expectancy, compared to other two options, the more this is the only possible way out.

In the past 12 years, raising the retirement age in the national social security reform process has become one of the most common and the most common means of reform, but the failures are not uncommon. For example, France had as raising the retirement age and many times lead to nationwide demonstrations, and even lead to social unrest. According to incomplete statistics, the OECD’s 34 member states, raising the retirement age has not only six countries, they are Finland, Iceland, Mexico, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom. The reason they did not reform because of their already high before the retirement age for half a century, of which Iceland has its statutory retirement age in 1958 remained at 67 years old, the other five countries from the 1940s has always been is 65 years old.

In the "2010 year of reform", in Greece, successfully raising the retirement age under the incentive legislation, Spain (from 65 to 67 years), Italy (female civil servants from 61 years to 65 years), United Kingdom (from 65 to 66 years), especially in France, a last bastion of reform, the retirement age (from 60.5 years to 62 years, the retirement age for full pension from 65 years to 67 years) successfully passed legislation to delay retirement; against The reform of the social movement from these countries in Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Romania, Germany, Poland and the spread of Western Europe, a time to protest against raising the retirement age of the surging wave of reform in Europe.

As of the end of 2010, all European countries the retirement age in 61 years of age, only Luxembourg and other three countries is 60 years old, United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Sweden and most of the countries 65, 67-year-old retired the highest executive There are two provisions of the country, namely, Iceland and Norway. Future plans to continue raising the retirement age of 11 countries, including Britain, Denmark.

In raising the retirement reform, a noteworthy trend is the HP Pavilion dv4 battery gradual increase in female retirement ages, retirement ages for men and to continue to close. Another noteworthy rule is that the statutory retirement age "is easy to cut up hard." France and New Zealand in the 1980s have easily reduced the retirement age from 65 to 60 years old, but raised the age of reform in the face of unprecedented enormous resistance. For example, in France since 1995 to try to raise the retirement age, this reform for 10 years, costly.

Overall, in the past 10 years, parametric reform, raising the retirement age is most common, but also the most urgent, and adjust the level and payment rate of pension reform is extremely cautious. It is for this reason, raising the retirement age became the most popular American and European countries, a reform trend.

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The cost of aging drag "Happy Europe"

January 4th, 2012

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Started by the Greek sovereign debt crisis in Europe as a soap opera, endlessly, in just one year, the European debt crisis triggered a series of political earthquake, Prime Minister of the four countries to step down this lose their jobs. European debt crisis and the global financial markets, the euro area the impact goes far beyond the imagination of almost everyone, now heading the European debt crisis, when to terminate, still fuzzy variable.

If the debt crisis in Europe is overwhelmed by the Prime Minister’s four-nation "last straw", replacement LG R405 laptop battery then the pension is caused by the debt crisis of the last incentive.

"Ageing costs" caused the collapse of the Greek

Europe is the birthplace of the welfare state is the most severe aging trend in the area. Aging is not only a drag on economic growth, but also improve the welfare costs, exacerbated the financial burden. Greece as the cradle of the European debt crisis, debt crisis in Europe throughout the exposure to the whirlpool of a widely criticized European welfare system a negative sample. The end of 2009, the Greek government for the payment of unemployment benefits and funding was found and disclosed the previous government concealed the true financial position, to publicize his cause public debt to GDP of 106 percent to 126%, the budget deficit 6.7 percent upwards 12.7%, and later adjusted to 15.4%, thus beginning the prelude to the debt crisis.

In May 2010 the International Monetary Fund finally decided HP Pavilion DV2000 Battery to aid Greece and the euro zone, but proposed fiscal consolidation, reform the economy, reduce welfare of three conditions:

In the pension system reform, recovery of high pension levy "special tax"; female pensionable age appropriate increase; pension age to introduce a change in life expectancy associated with the mechanism; civil service pension Age from 61 years to 65 years; of 13 and 14 months of receiving the pension amount to be limited to 800 euros within; pension level not more than 2500 euros; cancel Easter, summer and Christmas pension subsidies .

In the area of ​​welfare reform, public sector bonuses every two years shall not exceed 1000 euros; monthly wages shall not be more than 3000 euros; the public sector to cut 8% of the allowance; institutions to cut 3% of wages; reform legislation and other workers.

In economic reform efforts to increase corporate profits tax; the surcharge to 23%; luxury consumption tax increased by 10%; raise tobacco taxes and fuel taxes; the number of state-owned enterprises shall be reduced from 6000 to 2000; create a financial stabilization funds.

For these conditions, the Greek government to accept it, then, despite the outbreak of large-scale public demonstrations against the cuts in benefits, but the Greek Parliament or through a package of tough "2010 pension reform."

Academy of Social Sciences, director of Latin America, IBM ThinkPad X40 Battery the World Social Security Research Center, Professor Zheng Bingwen that, as donors, the International Monetary Fund and the euro zone’s reason for making these reforms, the aim is to rationalize the "aging cost" to reduce the financial burden. Otherwise, in the 2010-2050 years, pension spending will increase 12.5 percent of GDP, the social security system in the brink of bankruptcy, but in terms of the roadmap for the reform of the pension expenditure grew by only 4.5 percentage points; if strictly enforced continues, there may be increased by only 1.9 percentage points.

A NOTE that the Greek crisis reveals two important issues rescue conditions: first, the driving force behind the debt crisis, one from the pension. In the traditional indicators, the fiscal deficit only measure the total deficit, primary deficit and the structural deficit, the total debt, public sector financial net worth, financial position of these public policy and quantitative indicators are obviously not made on the future trends in public finances the right to judge, resulting in the Greek sovereign debt crisis and Europe’s debt crisis "heaven." Second, the cost of aging being introduced into the financial evaluation system is necessary. This is because, on the one hand, the traditional PAYG pension system, that is the next generation of working people pay directly used to pay current retiree pensions, with a strong hidden debt and higher financial vulnerability, so that the aging trend is gradually revealed two defects; other hand, "the cost of aging," the existence of the traditional financial indicators have not always correctly grasp the authenticity of public finances, it does not reflect the aging band to the hidden "costs of aging", the population changes in the structure of the traditional financial indicators of these two flaws exposed, has shaken the financial sustainability indicators framework, a country completely changed the traditional meaning of fiscal sustainability .

The debt bomb detonated at any time

Aging costs has two meanings. General meaning of the aging trend is caused by three potential risk that the economic slowdown, fiscal revenue, public expenditure increased, the three together constitute the "cost of aging," the broad meaning of a sovereign state and sovereign debt finances worsen the potential for rising.

The past 20 years, average growth rate in Europe than the United States. It is predicted that the aging population and to reduce the working age population, will affect economic growth. In other words, the next 50 years, demographic changes caused by the slowdown in economic growth, fiscal revenue and public expenditure to increase the potential risk of co-existence of three intertwined and complex situation, European countries will make the time to monitor their financial SONY VGP-BPS8 battery situation, guard against the risk of its debt crisis occurs, to improve their financial sustainability of the pension system. Greece is currently being implemented economic reforms, fiscal consolidation, reduction of benefits is in fact a response to "the cost of aging," the broad meaning of the reform package.

Narrow sense refers to the aging of the cost of the major aging financial costs, including five welfare programs, that public pension expenditures, medical expenses, long-term care expenses, education expenses, and unemployment insurance expenditures. In theory, the more imminent population aging and the more severe, the expenditure for the first three will continue to rise, then the two will be gradually decreased. Thus, five of the shift in welfare spending will be offset to some extent part of costs. If the increase in life expectancy under the conditions of medical care expenses of any modifications to be a difficult items of expenditure, a pension spending in Europe will become an important alternative options for reform.

Common practice in European countries now pay-structure of the social insurance system, the insured person’s pension rights, in essence, is a hidden liabilities, with the passage of time and the extension of life expectancy, "the pension total wealth "This hidden form continued dominance and monetary liabilities, thereby increasing the potential total government spending, the impact of the economic growth potential.

Long-term "aging costs" into account a country’s finances can be expected taking into account the aging of the population due to extra, hidden, and large-scale financial costs. Otherwise, the traditional financial indicators show only a part of public finance picture, but not all, it may be hidden in the future may become a debt bomb explosion at any time.

Regions in the world, an aging population in Europe the situation is most severe.

In order to implement the current pay-as-old-age security system as the main institutions of the European countries, "the cost of aging," the vulnerability of public finances is an important incentive. Dell Inspiron 9400 battery If the assessment of a country’s financial risk factors to take into account aging and "aging cost", rearrange the financial early warning will alert the budget or reforming the pension system to adapt to the rapidly aging population needs to avoid Greek-style debt crisis.

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Eurozone PMI decline for four consecutive months of increase in risk of global recession in the second

December 19th, 2011

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Lingering debt crisis further aggravated the plight of the European economy. dell Latitude D820 battery Thursday, the euro zone manufacturing and services economy to measure the extent of a composite indicator signals contraction issued four consecutive months. The ECB also cut the day a report on the economic outlook forecast.

At the same time, continue to simmer with the debt crisis, the global economic outlook becomes increasingly bleak. In a number of economists, compared to a few months ago, the world economy into the second recession next year probability has been greatly increased.

Eurozone PMI decline for four consecutive months

Data provider Markit Economics on Thursday, the euro zone manufacturing and service industries covering a comprehensive purchasing managers index (PMI) 12 47.9 monthly, although higher than the November 47, but still below the 50 wing failure dividing line. So far, euro-zone manufacturing and services has been shrinking for four consecutive months.

Specifically, the euro zone manufacturing PMI in December reported Sony VGP-BPS8B Battery 46.9, slightly higher than November’s 46.4; and 12 months of the previous services PMI rose to 48.3 from January’s 47.5.

"The fourth quarter of 2011, the euro zone suffered the worst two and a half to a quarter, PMI data shows that the region’s economy may shrink 0.6%." Markit Economics Williamson, chief economist in a statement. said.

Williamson pointed out that, despite the December PMI index decline rate decreases, it is to see some level of economic activity may slow down the hope, but the euro-zone economy and a quarter of contraction probably inevitable, especially considering the goods and services, new orders continued to decline, the downturn in business confidence as well as countries outside the euro zone tight situation.

Also in 15, European Central Bank said in a monthly report, lowered its assessment of the prospects for the euro area economy. The bank pointed out that the recent financial market pressures may continue to strengthen, and then spread to the real economy.

In addition, Eurostat data released 15 November this year, the euro zone inflation remained at an annual rate of 3.0%, and 10 were unchanged. In the EU Member States, the lowest inflation rate in November in Sweden, 1.1%; the highest rate of inflation for the UK and Slovakia, are 4.8%.

Increase in risk of global economic recession in the second

European sovereign debt crisis continues to worsen, the global HP Pavilion dv4 battery economy has brought more and more of the "wind." The OECD has said that the plight of the euro area have weakened global economic growth.

With the escalating debt crisis, coupled with the ongoing financial market turmoil, the academic world for the next year the economy may fall into recession in the second concerns the recent significant warming.

British "Financial Times" 15 reported that more economists have begun to recognize, compared to a few months ago, the risk of recession in the second economy has greatly increased. Generally believed that, if world economic growth below 3%, which is equivalent to the emergence of mild recession.

Reported that economists have recently lowered forecast, but overall is still expected 2012 global economic growth will be slightly higher than 3%, one percentage point lower than in 2011.

Economists generally believe that the debt crisis in the European center of the storm, most of the brink of recession. Europe’s problems may also drag the United States. Goldman Sachs economists expect, the European debt crisis could drag on U.S. GDP growth next year by 1 percentage point. Currently, the industry average of U.S. GDP growth expected next year probably around 2.5%. According to Goldman’s estimates, the U.S. economic growth next year may be only 1.5%.

In Europe and America "misfiring" in the context of the vast LG R405 battery majority of global economic growth will be driven by emerging markets. But with the worsening external environment, emerging markets can not stay. Many economists believe that China and other emerging economies have begun to shift the focus of the policy to maintain growth.

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